One of the basic assumptions behind my research is the belief that as rapid manufacturing technologies become cheaper and more available, consumers will design and make their own products. And most importantly, that this will happen whether designers, companies and brands sanction the activity or not. This is obviously a fairly sweeping statement, and so the next few posts will present my arguments as to why I believe this to be the case.

In 1977 Ken Olsen, founder and CEO of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), said in a speech to the World Future Society that he saw

“no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.”

Olsen has since insisted that his prediction should be seen in the context of what was widely understood at the time by the term ‘computer’ - the mainframe and ‘mini’ computers with proprietary operating systems of the type which DEC were manufacturing. Nonetheless it’s a good illustration of the consequences of failing to recognise the consumer’s changing relationship to technology: Olsen was replaced as CEO in 1992 and DEC was bought by Compaq in 1998.

© IBM

A year before Olsen made his statement, Apple had released its first computer. The Apple-1 was essentially a circuit board, some parts and an instruction manual on how it should be assembled and programmed. The user needed to add a case, a keyboard and a display. But what the Apple-1 allowed, together with other early personal computers such as the Altair 8800 and the IMSAI 8080, was the opportunity for electronics hobbyists to program machines for the first time. Olsen was undoubtedly aware of the Apple-1, but DEC and other established names such as IBM, Xerox, NCR and Honeywell were unable to break free of the mindset that computers were machines for processing data. As such they were destined to play catch-up with companies such as Apple, Atari, Commodore, Sinclair and later of course Microsoft, who saw the potential of home computers for games, spreadsheets and word processing.

Apple-1, with keyboard attached. Image from Michael Holley of SWTP Corporation

These early home computers are interesting because we’re currently at a similar stage with regard to rapid manufacturing technologies. The established players such as 3D Systems, Objet, Z-Corp etc are manufacturing the equivalent of mainframe computers and selling them to large corporations for tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars. Until recently the home enthusiast was unable to simply play around with a 3D printer and find out what it could do. Then in 2006 the Fab@Home project released its Model 1 printer, with the specific aim of putting

“SFF [Solid Free Form] technology into the hands of… curious, inventive, and entrepreneurial citizens.”

The Fab@Home project quite explicitly likens itself to pioneers such as Apple and Altair in its aims and methods of getting new technology into the hands of those who would otherwise be unable to afford it. The Fab@Home machines are sold as a kit of parts (although pre-assembled models are also available) with instructions as to how to put one together. Users are encouraged to experiment and modify their machines, and then share their expertise in the spirit of open source development. And the leftfield results of such an approach are already apparent - would any of the large corporations which own 3D printers have experimented with printing in chocolate or cream cheese?

Fab@Home Model 1

Of course, just because one particular technology developed in a certain way and allowed computers to break out of the well-funded corporate office into society beyond, that doesn’t make it a certainty that rapid manufacturing technologies will follow the same path. It’s not a foregone conclusion that the manufacturers of these technologies will whither into bankruptcy or takeover as new and as yet unheard of companies spot the opportunities which the established players miss. Following on the heels of the computing revolution another industry - printing - was also transformed, but in an entirely different manner.

The laser printer was invented by Xerox in 1969. At the time, with the exception of art prints, printing meant only one thing: high volume production of books, magazines, reports etc. It’s therefore unsurprising that manufacturers focussed on accuracy and throughput: in 1977 the Xerox 9700 illustrated below was capable of printing 120 pages per minute.

Xerox 9700 © Xerox

But digital laser printing developed along an evolutionary path, rather than the revolutionary way in which home computers became drivers of the industry. Although it happened quickly (Hewlett Packard launched the first LaserJet model, which they dubbed the world’s first desktop printer, in 1984), the industry was dominated by established manufacturers developing the technology in their own labs, rather than enthusiastic hobbyists in their garages. Gradually these printers found their way into smaller offices, graphic design firms, and high-street print bureaus, which meant almost anyone with a home PC could afford to produce professional looking documents. Colour laser printing was perfected, and demand inevitably led to cost reductions, such that today it’s possible to buy a black and white laser printer for less than $100.

HP LaserJet © Hewlett Packard

So two alternative ways for rapid prototyping technologies to enter the consumer market are by established companies developing technologies to a point where the price reduces to a consumer-acceptable level, or by less well known companies making cheaper, cruder models available to enthusiasts. There is another possibility though, which is the introduction of a disruptive technology, maybe one which has yet to be invented. At the same time that Hewlett Packard were developing and refining their LaserJet technology, a group of engineers within the company were proposing a new printing method which involved jetting liquid ink onto paper. This broke away from the mindset that printing was inevitably about speed, and argued that for home users printing relatively small numbers of documents, cost and reasonable accuracy were the main drivers. In doing so a market in printers and replacement cartridges worth billions of dollars was created.

To end this first part I’ll show the 125ci 3D printer, the first offering from Desktop Factory. Currently it’s only available for pre-order, but at a price of $4995 it’s significantly cheaper than existing commercial offerings. Desktop Factory claim that within three years their products will be affordable for home use. If true, it will be interesting to see how other players in the market respond.

125ci 3D Printer © Desktop Factory